Boston seen losing population in latest U.S. Census estimate

Serghino René

Like many soon-to-be married couples, Michael Allwood and his fiancé wanted to buy a home. They also wanted to stay in Boston. They searched and searched and searched for something they could afford. But they had little luck. Tiny condos were running as high as a half-million dollars.

“It was outrageous,” said Allwood, a youth minister for Global Ministries. “There were no yards, no parking spots and I risked getting a ticket for parking in front of my house on a street cleaning day.”

Having to pay more for less wasn’t on this couple’s agenda. They considered neighboring towns as well, ultimately finding a two-bedroom condo in Brockton.

Allwood has no qualms about living in Brockton. He says the city is growing and he plans to be there for quite some time.

“I live across the street from the commuter rail and Brockton Transit Authority,” says Allwood. “ I have everything I need within a small radius. I have parking, it’s quiet, I have access to transportation, four strip malls, my car insurance is lower and groceries are cheaper.”

This is not what Boston Mayor Thomas Menino wants to hear these days.

The Allwoods’ exodus is just one of countless others, and while it’s unclear how many minorities have left the city, it is clear that the numbers are growing.

The latest U.S. Census Bureau statistics are a case in point. Since 2000, the city has lost more than 30,000 residents, a 5.1 percent decrease. Of all of the nation’s major cities, Boston had the third largest decline.

To his credit, Menino tried to put the best face on what is a clear problem. He argued that the numbers were wrong, misconstrued and overstated. He claimed the Census Department overlooked several major factors that would otherwise show his city as a national model of economic strength and vibrancy.

“Our own research proves that our city is strong: showing healthy job growth; increased home ownership; and more companies expanding in Boston,” Menino said in a statement.

Mayor Menino is right to an extent. There was a 1.5 percent increase in employment in 2005, city officials said. In addition, there have been ongoing efforts to maintain neighborhoods, develop new and existing businesses in areas like Dudley, construct middle class housing like Olmsted Green in Mattapan, combat youth violence citywide and improve Boston public school education, among others.

The changes are noticeable and for the better. But they are not occurring fast enough for many middle class minority residents, many of whom are choosing to move elsewhere.

Boston’s dwindling middle class is finding refuge in southern states like Florida, Georgia, Virginia and North Carolina, largely because the cost of living is much more affordable.

“I could name 10 families from my parish who are moving to the South,” said Reverend Bruce Wall of Global Ministries Christian Church in Dorchester. “I also know one family who bought their dream home in Texas for $179,000 and there is no way to convince them to stay here. ”

Wall calls the recent decline the “reverse migration,” a reference to the Great Migration that occurred between 1910 and 1930 when the South lost 20 percent of its population as African Americans ventured North to escape racism and find better paying jobs.

The reverse is now happening as a result of increased crime, poor education and the high cost of living. Even Christian churches are relocating outside of the city to areas like Framingham and Lynn.

Wall also notes that since the Civil Rights Movement, southern cities have become small meccas of opportunity, places where a number of minority businesses, institutions and people have been able to grow economically and flourish. And there is the warmer weather.

Almost everything associated with Boston is expensive, from rent to home ownership, insuring a car, gas and even buying food. No wonder a number of Bostonians use fake addresses, posing as residents of Quincy, Avon or even New Hampshire to get a lower car insurance rate.

“It doesn’t matter where you live [in the city], whether it’s in a safer neighborhood, like West Roxbury or Jamaica Plain, car insurance, mortgage rates, property taxes and even rent are beginning to go off the roof,” says Rudy Crichlow, real estate broker for Rudy & Associates.

Crichlow has been a real estate broker for 20 years and has observed how the social demographics have changed due to the cost of living. He says higher income improves neighborhood reputation, stability and safety.

“I see the city improving,” says Crichlow, “[but it’s] just not affordable for a lot of people.

While families are leaving, people from other parts of the country are moving to Boston in search of higher paying jobs.

Another familiar trend among well-heeled families is purchasing condos for their children attending college, rather than paying the school for room and board.

“Parents who buy property for their children see it as being more cost effective in the long run,” says Crichlow. “When their child graduates, they will have someplace to live when they start their career.”

If their child chooses to live elsewhere, Crichlow said, parents could resell the property at a profit.

One mortgage broker seemed to have a simpler explanation for the Boston exodus.

“It’s all about pure dollars and cents,” says Brett Harding, CEO of State Wide Home Buyers Group in Dorchester. She predicts that in 5 to 10 years, “unless you are upper income, you won’t live [in Boston].”

Room is being made for the increasing number of millionaires beginning to reside in the city. Their influx has surged the economic dynamics of the city, driving up the prices of many services and goods.

A recent national survey identified Boston as having the highest percentage of millionaires among other cities in the country, a nearly 1-in-20 ratio. It is estimated that in five years the number of millionaires residing in Boston will double. The downtown area alone hosts 24 percent of them.

“I was astonished when I saw a two family home on Dorchester’s Fuller St. sell for $600,000,” said Harding. “I was like, ‘Am I missing something here?’ I love the city, but it is becoming tougher to economically live in Boston. The city is heading towards becoming an upper and lower income neighborhood with an invisible middle class.”

Harding commutes from Rhode Island to her office in Boston, but it doesn’t bother her a bit.

“Distance isn’t an issue for me,” Harding says. “On the train I get a chance to read the paper, sleep and avoid traffic.”