Patrick victory would be one for the nation’s record books

Alex Bloom

Deval Patrick stands on the brink of history.

If Patrick wins the right in Tuesday’s primary to stand as the Democratic Party’s nominee in November’s gubernatorial election, he will be in a prime position to become not only the state’s first Democratic governor since Michael Dukakis left office in 1992, but also the first African American governor in Massachusetts history, which would make him only the third African American governor in American history.

Voters will choose on Tuesday between Patrick and his opponents, Attorney General Thomas Reilly and venture capitalist Chris Gabrieli. Patrick is one of three African Americans seeking gubernatorial office this November. Of the three, which include Lynn Swann of Pennsylvania and Ken Blackwell of Ohio, Patrick is the only Democrat.

More importantly, Patrick has the best chance. Polls show Patrick neck and neck with his opponents or maintaining a slight lead as Election Day approaches, while both Blackwell and Swann are losing considerably to their opponents. A primary win for Patrick could easily spell a trip to Beacon Hill, since polls show him ahead of Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey.

“The polls also show he’s running ten points ahead of [Healey],” said David Bositis of the The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. “If he gets the nomination, he would be the favorite to win that race.”

Patrick would be the first African American governor since L. Douglas Wilder was elected to Virginia’s highest office in 1990. Before Wilder, the last African American governor was P. B. S. Pinchback, elected in 1873 in Reconstruction-era Louisiana.

“It’s a big opportunity for Massachusetts, but I’m not running to be the first black governor of Massachusetts,” said Patrick. “I’m running to be the best governor of Massachusetts.”

Known for its progressive political tendencies, Massachusetts is one of only three states to have produced a statewide elected African American governor or senator since Reconstruction, joining Illinois Senators Barack Obama, Carol Moseley Braun and Virginia Governor Wilder. Edward Brooke served as a Republican senator for Massachusetts from 1967 to 1979.

“It would confirm Massachusetts as a place where voters do not have the racial prejudices characteristic of other, states especially those that they still have in the South,” said Bositis, who studies African American voting patterns.

Patrick, who spoke at an event at Tufts University on Sunday, came to Massachusetts in 1970 on a scholarship to Milton Academy and has owned a home in the Commonwealth for most of the last 20 years. He worked for the Clinton administration as assistant attorney general for civil rights before serving as general counsel for Coca-Cola and Texaco. Patrick has been discussing his roots growing up on 54th and Wabash Streets on the South Side of Chicago, where he had to answer to neighbors as well as parents, to describe his focus on family and community.

“I’m proud of what I am. I’m proud of my identity as a black man,” said Patrick. “But I’m a lot of other things too. I’m a successful businessperson and a successful lawyer. I’ve also been a kid who grew up in public systems and had a whole range of life experiences and what I want to bring is that whole range of life experiences to the decisions that are facing us here in Massachusetts.”

Bositis acknowledged that a victory for Patrick would be a huge accomplishment, especially based on the slim minorities that African Americans make up in most states. In Massachusetts, African Americans comprise around 7.5 percent of the population, and they make up one percent or less of the population in Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire.

“You have a whole bunch of states where there aren’t any black people,” said Bositis.

Additionally, with senators like Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass., Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii and Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., who have all served in the Senate for more than 30 years, very few high-profile seats become available, especially to African Americans. Those who contend for those few spots will run into tough incumbents, making their path to political success much tougher.

“If you’re talking about incumbents who aren’t going to get defeated, you’re talking about very few opportunities,” said Bositis. “So when it happens and a black candidate is successful, that’s why it’s so rare.”

If Patrick can engineer victories in the primary election next Tuesday and in the general election in November, he could very quickly become a national spokesperson for the Democratic Party. In the last 20 years, the Democratic Party has tapped two Democratic politicians as presidential candidate for president (Dukakis and Sen. John F. Kerry), and a third, former Sen. Paul Tsongas, challenged Bill Clinton in 1992.

“Would it give [Patrick] a profile? Oh yeah,” said Bositis. “And he’s comparatively young.”