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Blacks’ support no sure thing for Obama
Earl Ofari Hutchinson
Political interests trump race. That’s the hard lesson that likely 2008 presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., will soon learn. Those who think black voters will automatically support one of their own had better think again.
A survey in January 1996 showed that the so-called black president, Bill Clinton, nosed out the Rev. Jesse Jackson and Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan in popularity among blacks. When the Rev. Al Sharpton made his presidential foray in the South Carolina Democratic primary eight years later, he barely nudged out eventual Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John Kerry among black voters. The state’s leading black Democrats and Rep. James Clyburn, then chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, worked hard for Kerry.
In the November 2006 midterm elections, Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, pro football great Lynn Swann in Pennsylvania and Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele — all Republicans — banked heavily on getting black voter support to beat their white Democratic opponents in state races. They failed miserably.
Blacks were enraptured with Clinton, and have supported white Democrats for good reason. They believed these seasoned politicians would deliver on their promises to fight for jobs, education and healthcare.
The same rules apply to Obama. Blacks may puff out their chests with pride at the prospect of the junior senator from Illinois breaking racial barriers, but at the end of the day they’ll still judge him on two crucial questions: Can he deliver on bread and butter issues and can he win?
The second is critical. Many blacks are leery that Obama is a media-created flash in the pan that will wilt under the intense scrutiny that comes with a presidential campaign. Most black voters desperately want to end Republican rule of the White House, but that doesn’t mean they’ll support just any Democrat — it’s got to be a Democrat with whom they feel comfortable.
Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., and Edwards come much closer to fitting that bill than Obama. Many blacks applaud Edwards for being virtually the only top white Democrat to speak candidly about racial problems in the 2004 presidential race, and for barnstorming the country afterward to champion labor rights and demand a new war on poverty. Clinton, for her part, has a highly advantageous last name and husband, solid ties with black religious leaders and elected officials, and is personally admired by many blacks.
Here’s where Obama, in the eyes of many blacks, departs from Shirley Chisholm, Jesse Jackson and Sharpton, the three other black Democrats who took a shot at the presidency. They were readily identifiable, urban-bred African Americans that spoke out boldly on civil rights, poverty and economic injustice, while the Harvard-trained Obama — as the so-called “post-racial” candidate of mixed parentage — has soft-pedaled these issues.
Sure, his speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention was a buzz-creating stem-winder. But since then, has he rammed any meaningful legislation through the Senate, delivered a visionary foreign policy statement or scored a diplomatic coup with a foreign leader? The brutal truth is that Obama is too new on the political scene, too untested, too politically nice, too liberal and, most of all, he’s African American.
If giddy Democrats made Obama their nominee, he’d face the GOP contender with a handicap of about 100 electoral votes — the tally of support he would certainly forsake from Southern and Southern-border states. Such political turf is still dominated by mostly conservative white males, those pro-war, limited government voters vehemently opposed to any political tilt toward minorities and heavily influenced by Bible Belt fundamentalism.
There’s yet another reason why many blacks are skeptical about Obama. His ascendancy as a lawyer and politician represents a threat to the old-guard generation of black leaders who made the jump to politics from their work as preachers or civil rights activists. Black leaders like Jackson — who is still an important bellwether — have been guarded in their praise for Obama. That could change in time if — and this is a big if — they feel that Obama will stick to fighting the battles against discrimination and for economic justice on the political and legislative front.
Obama certainly represents a fresh face on the political scene, and has lots of room to grow and become adept on the issues. And if by some miracle the Democrats choose him as their presidential standard bearer, the majority of blacks would dutifully vote for him, not because he’s black, but because he’s a Democrat.
Still, in a tough presidential race there’s no time for on-the-job candidate training. Blacks want someone who can snatch back the White House from Republicans. And Obama isn’t that someone.
BlackNews.com columnist Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author, political analyst and social issues commentator.
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