Democrats weigh Southern vote for the presidency

Mike Baker

RALEIGH, N.C. — It’s a fact known to any avid student of politics: not since John F. Kennedy in 1960 has the nation elected a Democratic president who didn’t hail from the South.

So while Democrats debate Iraq war policies and health care plans, there is sure to be plenty of talk among party faithful about simple geography. Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama may be the frontrunners to lead Democrats back to the White House, but only former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards can call himself a son of the South.

“There’s too much history that suggests you can’t ignore the ‘Southern phenomenon,”’ said Steve Jarding, a political science professor at Harvard University and a Democratic consultant. “The elite members of the Democratic power think about it. It weighs on their minds — and it should.”

The history is pretty simple. Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, who headlined the Democratic ticket along with Edwards in 2004, didn’t win in any of the 11 states that made up the Confederacy. Neither did Al Gore, who entered the 2000 election with equal roots in Tennessee and Washington, D.C.

Neither did former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis in 1988, former Minnesota Sen. Walter Mondale in 1984 and former South Dakota Sen. George McGovern in 1972.

But former Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter and former Texas Sen. Lyndon B. Johnson — the last three Democratic presidents — all picked up victories in Southern states on their way to the White House.

That’s why Democrats like South Carolina state Sen. Robert Ford will only support party candidates with roots below the Mason-Dixon line.

“I’m just being realistic,” said Ford, a black lawmaker who added he doesn’t believe Americans will vote for an African American candidate such as Obama. “I know Southern voters ain’t going to vote for Northeasterners. It’s just the truth.”

Ford, a 14-year veteran of South Carolina’s state senate, is leaning toward supporting Edwards over former first lady Clinton, who has a history with her husband in Arkansas but now represents New York in the Senate. Ford doesn’t believe any of the other Democratic candidates — who hail from parts nationwide — can compete in 2008.

“Once you get that Northeastern brand on you, you’re doomed,” he said.

But Jeff Link, a veteran Democratic adviser now working for Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack’s presidential bid, said one issue alone — the widely unpopular war in Iraq — should keep the 2008 election from becoming a regional showdown that follows the historical trends.

“People aren’t monolithic voters,” Link said. “They vote for people who they believe understand their situation and have a plan for helping the whole country — not just pockets. You don’t have to be from the South in order to empathize with people.”

Link does admit the Democrats need to “expand the map” — particularly in the Midwest and the South.

More than 52 percent of U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2030 is expected in the South, according to U.S. Census Bureau projections, far outpacing the West, the Midwest and the Northeast. It’s one of the reasons the Democratic National Committee altered its early primary schedule to give South Carolina a stronger voice in the nominating process.

In 2004, South Carolina was one of the first Southern states to pick a presidential nominee, but did so on the same day as six other states. Next year, the Palmetto State will contest its primary on Jan. 29, after only Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire, and will be the only state to do so that day. It will be at least a week before another state holds a presidential primary or caucus.

Amaya Smith, a spokeswoman for the DNC, said the new schedule will help ensure that Democrats “get the best nominee.”

Edwards isn’t shy when it comes to pandering to his regional constituency. During a book tour stop in his home state of North Carolina, he recalled some of his childhood memories, fondly telling the crowd about the comforts of his mother’s biscuits and gravy. Dozens of audience members nodded in understanding, and Edwards paused with a smirk on his face.

“I’m smiling, because when I told that story in New York, I got blank looks,” Edwards quipped.

The former trial lawyer is a lifelong resident of the South who exudes a Southern charm — speaking in a light drawl and working with sleeves rolled up. And as Edwards never fails to point out, he’s the son of a Carolinas mill worker.

Edwards also clings to some of his deep-seeded Southern values. Though he’s pushing a liberal economic platform that includes universal health care, he doesn’t embrace gay marriage and supports the death penalty.

“Sen. Edwards hasn’t forgotten where he’s from, and he has a personal appreciation for his background,” said Edwards pollster Harrison Hickman. “That gives him an additional credibility to the notion that he understands how people who don’t have power feel.”

Jarding, who has worked for former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner and Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, said voters will insist they care more about a candidate’s policies than the place they call home. But, he added, the Democratic Party would be wise to recognize that Southern voters generally perceive candidates from the South as more mainstream and moderate than their northern counterparts.

“Most Americans would say, ‘I don’t care if you’re from North Carolina or North Dakota, so long as you have an understanding of our needs,’” Jarding said. “But if Democrats want to win the White House, they can’t write that region off.”

(Associated Press)