Female PM seeks first popular election

Peter Ischyrion

KINGSTON, Jamaica — Portia Simpson Miller is a popular grassroots politician.

The 64-year-old took over for P.J. Patterson as prime minister last March, making her Jamaica’s first female head of government. But her rise to the top of Jamaican politics was the result of an internal election among the ruling People’s National Party (PNP).

Now Miller has launched a bid to become the first female elected after a popular election, and she is confident that she will survive the upcoming elections and lead the ruling PNP to an unprecedented fifth straight term in office.

“Are you ready for the first time to give Portia, a working-class woman and leader of the winning team, her first full term as prime minister of Jamaica?” she asked supporters as she announced the Aug. 27 election date at a public meeting earlier this month. “Are you ready to give to Jamaica a woman of courage, a woman of determination, a woman of the people, from the people and for the people?”

Patterson, who himself faced the difficult task of succeeding the charismatic Michael Manley, said his successor, who became Jamaica’s seventh prime minister since independence 45 years ago, has done well.

“I gave her the baton and she has been carrying it well,” he told PNP supporters.

Opinion polls consistently show that the prime minister is more popular than her main contender, Bruce Golding of the opposition Jamaica Labor Party.

Some show her level of popularity as high as 53 percent, compared to Golding’s 41 percent. When respondents were asked who would do a better job as prime minister, Miller again outscored Golding, 40 percent to 34 percent.

“A campaign designed around the personality of the party president, ‘Portia’s first term’ as she called it, assumes that Mrs. Miller would be able to hide weak and unpopular candidates and 18 years of PNP rule from a discerning electorate,” wrote newspaper columnist Claude Robinson.

Opinion polls show that, despite her popularity, Miller will face a tough task in regaining control of the 60-member parliament.

A poll conducted June 22-25 by Don Anderson’s Market Research Services showed the People’s National Party leading the Jamaica Labor Party by a slim margin of 30.7 percent to 25 percent among likely voters.

Another pollster, Bill Johnson, had the race at 38 percent to 31 percent on June 24, while the Center for Leadership and Governance at the University of the West Indies — in a poll conducted during May and released July 8 — estimated 36 percent to go for the ruling party and 33 percent to go for the Jamaica Labor Party.

Caribbean political analyst Peter Wickham noted, however, that in a situation where the PNP is leading by a statistically insignificant five percentage points, a long campaign could come back to haunt Miller.

“The Jamaican PM’s actions therefore seem odd, for many reasons, not least of which is the fact that the early election is intended to capture the moment as well as to catch the opposition by surprise,” said Wickham.

“By calling an early election, by setting the date seven weeks away, she has effectively surrendered one of the most effective tools in the arsenal of the Westminster PM,” he continued, referring to the fact that the British system, which many Caribbean countries have adopted, allows the prime minister alone to name the date for a general election.

Miller is allegedly obsessed with the number seven. Just days after the election date was set, some political pundits “discovered” that the number of days between the announcement and the election — 49 — was equal to seven squared. This opened a whole new can of worms, with commentators saying that she had invoked both religion and astrology to ensure victory.

“There is a thin line, if any, between religion and superstition,” said Dr. Orville Taylor, a senior lecturer at the University of the West Indies. “If one believes in God, then it is easy to accept the existence of duppies [ghosts]. Nevertheless, in a society that is 90 percent African-originated, we like to self-ridicule the ‘obeahphiliacs.’”

Obeah is a belief system prevalent in the West Indies that involves the use of rituals to ward off misfortunes.

Political commentator Cedric Wilson said the ongoing debates “at best amount to nothing more than vapid religious prattle and pseudo-intellectual drivel, and Mrs. Simpson Miller cannot escape some responsibility for this.”

“After all, she was the one who initiated it,” he said, noting that “the prime minister connected the event to a whole series of sevens — Jamaica’s seven National Heroes; her being the seventh Prime Minister; a nomination day set for August 7, and so on.”

He added: “However, it would come as a big surprise if Mrs. Simpson Miller actually believes that the symbolism of seven will give her party victory. The chain of sevens, for all its mystical appeal, for all its mathematical intrigue, is nothing more than comic relief. Indeed, the real factors that will determine the outcome of the election are personality and policy.”

Opposition leader Golding has also weighed into the debate, calling for a fixed date for general elections in Jamaica.

In a statement, Golding said that while the constitution gives the prime minister the right to recommend the dissolution of the parliament any time he or she wishes, it is not entrenched and could be amended by a majority in parliament.

He has promised that a Jamaica Labor Party government would follow through on that initiative “in the context of the package of constitutional reforms that have been under protracted discussion.”

Meanwhile, the Electoral Office of Jamaica said it is prepared for the election, noting that since 1997, it has managed to successfully address “all of the major malpractices,” including “multiple voting” and the stealing of ballot boxes.

“We have pictures on our voters’ list, so when you come into the polling station, there is no doubt as to who you are,” said Danville Walker, the director of elections.

(IPS/GIN)